Cryptocurrency total market cap - Bitcoin

 

Cryptocurrency total market cap - Bitcoin

I want to seriously think about this crazy idea that Bitcoin will reach $1 million in one currency by 2030. And that's not even my idea, one of the most respected hedge fund managers in the world Cathy Wood believes this will happen, and billionaire co-founder of Paypal Peter agrees. thiel agrees with her, there are plenty of other billionaires like Elon Musk, Jack Dorsey, Mike Novogratz, and the Winklevoss twins, who all think this crazy theory is possible.

 Now before you laugh at this idea and say it won't happen, let me share with you some of the data of some facts and statistics that support this theory, because the idea of ​​a million dollars bitcoin is based on another idea which is scarcity,

 There are only supposed to be 21 million bitcoins in existence, but it would take another 118 years before we mined all the bitcoins and before all 21 million actually existed, that would take us to the year 2140, but as of today, there are over 90 bitcoins Totally already, it would take us more than adventurous to get to just the other ten, but here's what's even crazier if all the millionaires in the world decide to buy just one bitcoin, they won't be able to because there isn't enough, according to Swiss Credit as of 2020. There are approximately 56 million millionaires worldwide, which means that each millionaire will be able to buy just over a third of a bitcoin, which is technically wrong because as of today there are more millionaires and most importantly Nearly 20 of the entire bitcoin supply is lost forever, nearly 4 million bitcoins will never be recovered, which means the real supply of bitcoin is close to 17 million making it even scarcer.

 So today I want to talk about some of these facts and data points that support this crazy theory of a million dollars bitcoin by 2030, I'm excited.

 Bitcoin is now worth about forty-two thousand dollars, and its market capitalization is about eight hundred billion dollars, here's what we'll need to get to a million dollar bitcoin, we'll need 25 times our investment, and the market cap at this point will be closer to 20 trillion dollars, which is a crazy amount.

 But now let me share with you some data on how this happens, the first thing we have to talk about is how much money do we need to move the price of bitcoin, because the idea of ​​a million dollar bitcoins is flawed if we look at it from the perspective of market value as I used to, and I know that a lot of People do that, because even though market value is supposed to tell us how much money is in the whole system, it's not, and it's kind of confusing that all market value does is it takes the present value of saving something and multiplies it at the current price , which is the last known selling price and that's all you do for example at the moment Bitcoin has a market cap of about $800 billion, it doesn't mean that even though $800 billion is inside the bitcoin ecosystem and if bitcoin goes to zero tomorrow, that's Not that investors will lose $800 billion in value, all they do is take the current bitcoin price of 42,700 and multiply it by the current outstanding supply of 19 million, to get the implied value of $800 billion, the The implication is that if you were to sell all 19 million at 42,700, you would make $800 billion, which you wouldn't do because if you were to sell all of that, it would affect the price all the way down, that's why the value of bitcoin is not its price or its market value, good An example is that the market capitalization of Apple stock market now is $2.78 trillion and the way this number is generated is that it takes all available stock in total and multiply it by the current price to get $2.78 trillion, but that doesn't mean that Apple has things worth 2.78 trillion There is also a price-earnings ratio of over 28, which means investors are paying more than 28 times what they earn annually for the opportunity to invest in apples because they expect Apple to grow and make more money in the future.

It's crazy to mislead how this works, you could technically start a billion dollar company with just one dollar, all it takes is to create a company with one billion shares outstanding and sell one share to someone else for one dollar, that would give you the implied value of the billion dollar company,

 Now bitcoin doesn't have a p/e ratio because it's not a stock and it's not a company, but the logic is pretty close and you don't need as much money as you think to move its price, and the best proof of that was on December 20, 2020. It all started when Tesla bought what its worth. $1.5 billion worth of bitcoin, it was on Dec 20, 2020, when Elon Musk asked Michael Saylor if it was even possible to buy a billion dollars worth of bitcoin, and that was when people started buying the rumor that maybe Elle was getting into bitcoins When I learned that the price was going to go up sharply, which is exactly what happened in the fourth quarter of 2020, when Tesla and Elon bought bitcoin but the world didn't know about it officially until the second deposit which was on February 8, 2021 and check what happened to the price of bitcoin that opened in Tweet day at 23,000 but by the time it was officially announced on February 8th Bitcoin was hitting 48,000 it had more than doubled so in a little over a month people are really spending over $430 billion on Bitcoin to double in price, There is no soft The probability that the real dollar amount was much less, and its discovery would be impossible without knowing every single transaction but in theory it would be less than 10-20 percent of its market value, which means that instead of needing $20 trillion, we might only need 2 to $4 trillion in inflows to make $1 million in bitcoin possible,

 Now as of that average down to 96 months in the next eight years, which would break that down to $21 billion a month which is still a lot of money, but it's more doable than we had before and just for comparison now, we're running around two $1 billion a month and that's very favorable to bitcoin which means we're off by a factor of 10, that means it's going to be very impossible to get to that point in the next eight years or are there some catalysts that might make that happen, please keep in mind that some Some of them are completely subjective but relatively conservative as to what they are but within the next eight years it will completely disrupt Bitcoin or at least play a conservative role within the credit of the eight major markets, and the first is the remittance market, where we send money from one country to another like we did to help Ukraine It's slow, it's expensive, it's closed on weekends, and it's undeniable that Bitcoin is the better system we have today.

 If Bitcoin could capture 50% of the remittance market that would add nearly $300 billion to the market cap, and these are emerging market currencies and this refers to the so-called money supply per square meter, that's all like physical cash checks Savings accounts in other words money that is easy to transfer and the emerging part refers to countries that are transitioning from development to modernization, good examples are Chinese money Russian ruble, Brazilian real, Indian rupee, and things like that, where bitcoin can be a good suggestion to store The value now if bitcoin could capture 10 of the global market here, that would add $2.8 trillion or roughly 133,000 coins to the value of bitcoin and this excludes the top four emerging coin countries and the third is the economic settlement network where banks send money to each eh And all of this happens digitally but at some point they will want to settle in a final currency which is usually the dollar.

And if bitcoin could only get 25 market share here, that would add $3.8 trillion or one hundred and eighty thousand dollars to the currency, and the fourth market is the nation-state treasury and you can think of this as a country's cash reserve or like a special small emergency fund With it, and if Bitcoin could only capture one percent of the global market here, that would add another $3.8 trillion or one hundred and eighty thousand dollars to the five-coin catalyst is high net worth individuals if these people own five percent of their assets in a coin Bitcoin that would add another four trillion dollars to the market capitalization or roughly 190 thousand to the coin, and the sixth catalyst is institutional investment, these are people like BlackRock, and if only two and half a percent of their assets were held in bitcoin that would add Another $4.1 trillion to market value or roughly $196,000 in currency, the seventh market is the corporate tree Bond This is where companies raise capital by creating some debt and if Only five percent of its funds are held in bitcoin here, that would add $4.2 trillion to the market cap or nearly $200,000 to the value of bitcoin.

 And finally eight that would be gold. If bitcoin could reach half of the market capitalization of gold at $5.5 trillion, that would add $260,000 to the value of bitcoin.

 Now obviously a lot of this is very personal and we can play with the math and round the numbers as we want but we can probably both agree that this is a relatively conservative thing, it's not assuming Bitcoin is going to dominate the world but the overall total market capitalization is going to be 28.5 trillion This means that the price of Bitcoin is $1.36 million.

 And some people say $28.5 trillion is just impossible because it's too big but to put that into perspective for you, that's still a lot less than the global stock market value which is a $106 trillion stock market, and still a lot less than the global value For a $124 trillion bond market, which is still ten times less than the global value of real estate at $220 trillion, suddenly when you put it in this perspective, $28.5 trillion doesn't seem so impossible, especially over the next eight years.

 So the next question is should you buy bitcoin before it hits a million dollars?

 And the answer is not clear that Bitcoin is a bubble according to a survey of professional investors from a US bank, they don’t think Bitcoin is a bubble, Warren Buffett and Charlie Manger think Bitcoin is a bubble but all of these are just opinions and they give us no data instead of that ,

 Here's some actual useful data to help you figure it out, it's called a multiple bar and it tells you the history of Bitcoin Price in relation to the 200-day moving average, it doesn't tell you when to buy or when to sell it just gives you some historical context and now it's a very good case to buy Bitcoin because any time the certified multiplier was lower 2.4 this was a historically appropriate time to buy anything higher than that would be expensive, now as of now with the current price of 42,700 the bar multiplier is 0.89, so it's close to the historical bitcoin average 1.41 which is higher than today's mayor 76 times so far we are in that rare time period where bitcoin is below its historical average, that doesn't mean you should buy it but it does mean if you think bitcoin is going to reach $1 million someday you might It's a good time to start dollar cost averaging,

And it's kind of crazy to think that people in 2017 were upset about buying bitcoin at 20,000 while now at forty, I now feel like we'd all wish bitcoin at 20,000, and I think that will hold true with each cycle.

 And by 2030 I don't think Bitcoin will replace banking, it won't replace the dollar and it won't replace gold it doesn't have to be, all it needs is a small market share from two different industries, which is exactly what's happening now to get us to a million everything is going smoothly Just as planned, I don't know who his plan was but I like the plan, let's stick to it as always.

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